Buckle up, race fans, because the 2025 NASCAR season finale at Phoenix is shaping up to be a wild ride! After practice and qualifying, the projections are in, and they're not what you might expect. This weekend, we'll see champions crowned in all three national series, culminating in the Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway. Get ready for an afternoon of high-speed action, starting at 3 p.m. ET on NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, and the NBC Sports App.
Four drivers are vying for the coveted Cup Series title: Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin, along with Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron and Kyle Larson. While all four have tasted victory at the 1-mile Arizona oval, Racing Insights has a surprising prediction for who will take the checkered flag. Let's dive into the projections and see how the Championship 4 drivers stack up.
The Unexpected Winner:
Racing Insights predicts that Christopher Bell, driving the No. 20 Toyota, will outduel his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, Briscoe and Hamlin, to claim victory. Bell has a strong track record at Phoenix, winning the last two spring races. However, his Championship 4 appearances haven't gone as planned, with a 10th-place finish in 2022 and an early exit in 2023 due to a brake failure. This is a bold prediction, considering Bell's past struggles in the championship race at this track.
Championship 4 Outlook:
The two championship-eligible JGR drivers, Hamlin and Briscoe, are projected to finish outside the top five. Hamlin, despite his 20-year quest for the Cup title, has had mixed results in the Next Gen car at Phoenix, with top-10 finishes in only three of seven races since 2022. Briscoe, whose first career Cup win came at Phoenix in the spring of 2022, has struggled in recent races, finishing 29th or worse in the last two events.
Byron is projected to be the highest-finishing Championship 4 driver. He won the spring race in 2023 and has consistently performed well at Phoenix, with finishes of sixth or better in all but two events since 2022. This is also his third consecutive Championship 4 appearance, showcasing his consistency and skill.
Larson's lone win at Phoenix was his championship-crowning moment in 2021. He has remained a strong contender in the Next Gen era, securing top-10 finishes in five of the seven races.
Drivers to Watch:
Beyond the Championship 4, several other drivers are worth keeping an eye on:
- Ryan Blaney: While Team Penske has dominated the Cup Series in the Next Gen era, Blaney is predicted to win. Blaney has never won at Phoenix, but had finished top five in the seven prior races.
- Joey Logano: The three-time series champion has had mixed results at Phoenix, winning the championship races he was eligible for but finishing outside the top 10 in other races.
- Ross Chastain: The No. 1 Trackhouse Racing driver has a strong record at Phoenix, winning the season finale in 2023 and finishing in the top three in both 2022 events. He boasts the third-best average finish in the Next Gen era (9.4).
- Chris Buescher: Buescher is right behind Chastain in average finish (9.6) during the same period. He's finished ninth or better in the last four Phoenix races.
- Daniel Suárez: This race marks Suárez's final race for Trackhouse Racing before moving to Spire Motorsports. He has a solid record at Phoenix, finishing 11th or better in three of the seven Next Gen era events.
Racing Insights' Projections:
Racing Insights uses an advanced statistical formula, factoring in track conditions, recent performance, team data, and pit-crew data to predict the winner and provide race results. These projections were updated after practice and qualifying sessions.
(P) denotes playoff driver
Projected Finish:
- 12 Ryan Blaney
- 24 William Byron
- 5 Kyle Larson
- 20 Christopher Bell
- 22 Joey Logano
- 11 Denny Hamlin
- 9 Chase Elliott
- 17 Chris Buescher
- 45 Tyler Reddick
- 19 Chase Briscoe
- 1 Ross Chastain
- 77 Carson Hocevar
- 48 Alex Bowman
- 23 Bubba Wallace
- 21 Josh Berry
- 6 Brad Keselowski
- 8 Kyle Busch
- 99 Daniel Suárez
- 2 Austin Cindric
- 71 Michael McDowell
- 54 Ty Gibbs
- 60 Ryan Preece
- 3 Austin Dillon
- 43 Erik Jones
- 4 Noah Gragson
- 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- 42 John Hunter Nemechek
- 34 Todd Gilliland
- 38 Zane Smith
- 7 Justin Haley
- 16 AJ Allmendinger
- 88 Shane van Gisbergen
- 41 Cole Custer
- 10 Ty Dillon
- 35 Riley Herbst
- 51 Cody Ware
- 44 J.J. Yeley
- 66 Casey Mears
And this is the part most people miss...
Controversy Alert: Do you agree with Racing Insights' projections? Will Christopher Bell surprise everyone and take the win? Which Championship 4 driver do you think has the best chance of victory? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
